We’re just shy of one week out from the announcement of the UK’s biggest book prize: the Booker. So it’s time to place your bets on who will win the £50,000, a massive spike in book sales, and lifelong bragging rights. (A different question, no doubt, than who should win.) If you need a tip, follow the money, and ask the bookies (they were at least close last year).

For the record: all things being equal, there is a baseline 50% chance of the Booker going to somebody named Paul on Sunday, but given the below odds, in which each Paul is more probable than the next, that number rises to . . . something I cannot calculate because I am an editor at a literary website who put all of my eggs in one basket long ago. But, higher. I think.

Here are the current betting odds, according to OLBG:

Paul Lynch, Prophet Song — 5/2 (probability 28.6%)

Paul Harding, This Other Eden — 3/1 (probability 25.0%)

Paul Murray, The Bee Sting— 7/2 (probability 22.2%)

Jonathan Escoffery, If I Survive You — 5/1 (probability 16.7%)

Sarah Bernstein, Study for Obedience — 11/2 (probability 15.4%)

Chetna Maroo, Western Lane — 13/2 (probability 13.3%)

This year’s judges are novelist Esi Edugyan (chair); actor, writer and director Adjoa Andoh; poet, lecturer, editor and critic Mary Jean Chan; Professor James Shapiro; and actor and writer Robert Webb. The winner of the £50,000 prize will be announced November 26, 2023.

Emily Temple

Emily Temple

Emily Temple is the managing editor at Lit Hub. Her first novel, The Lightness, was published by William Morrow/HarperCollins in June 2020. You can buy it here.